---------京都大学気象学合同コロキウムのご案内-------------

日時: 6/5(Fri.) 16:30--18:00

場所: 理学研究科1号館5階 地球惑星共通大会議室(Room 563)

講演者: Prof. Eugenia Kalnay
(Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, University of Maryland)

講演題目: Chaos and Predictability

講演要旨:
When Lorenz showed in the 1960's that atmospheric weather has a two-week limit 
of predictability even for a perfect model, forecasts had little skill even at 
36 hours so that this momentous discovery was of academic interest only. Since 
then, forecasts have become routinely skillful for a whole week, so that the 
"barrier of predictability" has become more important. We will discuss how 
ensemble forecasting allows extracting more information by taking advantage of 
the fact that atmospheric predictability varies widely from day to day and 
from region to region. We will show how the simple method of breeding makes 
possible to estimate the dynamical origin of instabilities in the atmosphere 
and the ocean, and improve data assimilation.