Public Lectures

"Mathematical Aspects of Weather and Climate Systems"

Date and time
22nd (Tue) 15:00 - 17:30 in October 2013
(Maskawa Hall will be open at 14:30)

Place
Maskawa Hall in North Comprehensive Education and Research Building,
in the North Campus of Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan

(Webcasting will be available)

Lecturers

Professor Michael Ghil
(Ecole Normale Supérieure, Paris, France, and University of California, Los Angeles, USA)

"Weather and climate: Deterministic or stochastic?"


Professor Tim Palmer
(University of Oxford, UK)

"Predicting climate in a chaotic world.
  How certain can we be?"

(Simultaneous translation into Japanese will be available)

Abstracts
"Weather and climate: Deterministic or stochastic?"
    Professor Michael Ghil   (ENS, France, and UCLA, USA)
The atmosphere, ocean, and other components of the climate system behave in a fairly irregular way. A major surprise of the late 20th century was the realization that such behavior could be produced by natural systems with a small number of degrees of freedom, governed by fully deterministic, but nonlinear laws. Still, the climate system has a large number of degrees of freedom, and ample room for random factors to intervene. Can we reconcile a low-order, deterministically nonlinear description of weather or climate with a high-order, possibly linear but random one? This talk will present some steps on the road to such a "grand unification," and implications for predictability will be discussed.

"Predicting climate in a chaotic world. How certain can we be?"
    Professor Tim Palmer   (Univ. of Oxford, UK)
Why are predictions of tomorrow's weather sometimes wrong? And if short-range weather predictions can go wrong, how can we have confidence in predictions of climate decades into the future? In this lecture I will outline the similarities and differences between weather and climate prediction, I will discuss the origin of uncertainties in weather and climate prediction, and I will describe the development of probabilistic prediction tools which try to estimate the impact of these uncertainties. I will conclude by asking whether manmade climate change is something we should believe in.

Leaflet
A leaflet for public lectures is available now. Click here to download the pdf file.